Coalition Talks For 2027 Nigerian Election Face Internal Struggles Amid Atiku's Ambitions

Coalition Chaos: The Battle Over Power Zoning and Political Ambitions

As the countdown to the 2027 Nigerian presidential election begins, efforts to form a united opposition front against President Bola Tinubu are gaining momentum. However, behind the scenes, the coalition talks are facing significant hurdles. Chief among these challenges are internal divisions over the political aspirations of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and a heated debate over power zoning. These issues are causing delays and creating tension among key players in the opposition movement.

Power Zoning: A Sticking Point in the Negotiations

A well-placed source familiar with the coalition discussions revealed that the camps of Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi are pushing hard for power to remain in the South for the next eight years. This insistence on power zoning has added a layer of complexity to the already delicate negotiations, leaving many participants hesitant to fully commit.

The source, speaking to Punch, emphasized that the demand for power zoning has become a major stumbling block. It has not only stalled progress but also created rifts among key players who are trying to navigate this politically charged landscape. With so much at stake, the coalition's future hangs in the balance as these issues remain unresolved.

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Atiku's Uncertain Role: A Source of Uncertainty

Another major factor complicating the coalition talks is the uncertainty surrounding Atiku Abubakar's political ambitions. According to the same source, many participants in the coalition are unsure whether Atiku will seek the presidency again in 2027. This lack of clarity is making it difficult for other political leaders to fully engage in the discussions.

"The participants in the coalition drive, especially from the South, are hesitant to fully engage in the discussions to avoid jeopardizing their own ambitions and those of their regions," the source explained. This fear of being overshadowed by Atiku's potential candidacy is causing many leaders to hold back, delaying the process and leaving the coalition in limbo.

Naija News: Atiku's Participation Remains a Controversy

Naija News reports that Atiku's continued involvement in the coalition talks remains a contentious issue. While the former PDP presidential candidate has been vocal about his desire to unite opposition forces, there are growing concerns that his ambitions may clash with the goals of other Southern political leaders. This has led to skepticism about whether Atiku's presence in the coalition is truly beneficial or if it could derail the entire process.

Atiku, alongside other opposition figures, declared that the recent gathering marked the official beginning of the coalition. However, the underlying tensions and uncertainties continue to loom large, casting doubt over the coalition's ability to achieve its objectives.

Momentum Gained: The Impact of El-Rufai's Defection

The coalition discussions received a significant boost following the defection of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) on March 10. This move added weight to the opposition movement and helped catalyze talks among key political figures. Other notable opposition leaders present at the press conference included Babachir Lawal, a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation; Peter Ahmeh, the National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties; and Segun Showunmi, the Convenor of the Alternative.

Despite this momentum, the absence of key figures such as Rotimi Amaechi, Kayode Fayemi, and Abdullahi Adamu, leaders from the ruling APC, was noted. The source disclosed that negotiations were stalled because many of the key figures involved in the coalition discussions are themselves potential candidates for the 2027 election.

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The Zoning Issue: A Delicate Balancing Act

"What I can tell you is that quite a lot of people are involved in the coalition. However, they fear zoning. You know that Obi and Amaechi are very much interested in replacing Tinubu, so their camps want power to remain in the South," the source explained. Meanwhile, the Atiku camp is also pushing for the former Vice President to take another shot at the presidency in 2027.

"So, largely, the zoning issue and Atiku’s uncertain position on 2027 are stalling the negotiations. The southerners who want to replace Tinubu are afraid to get involved without knowing Atiku’s stance. If they get involved and, in the future, the coalition declares the race open to all, and Atiku grabs it like he did in 2019 and 2023 in the PDP, most of them would jeopardize their ambitions and potentially shortchange their region," the source added.

"This is why many are not participating openly or attending the meetings, like at the last press conference. So, that’s the situation. It’s one thing to agree on a coalition, as they have all agreed on the need for opposition political parties or their leaders to come together. But without clarifying whether they support another Southerner taking over from Tinubu (zoning), the discussion will remain unresolved. It may even give a few leaders reasons not to participate," the source concluded.