Anderson Cooper's Take: The Political Chessboard In Nigeria's 2027 Election

Scope 30 Mar 2025

Minister Ata Weighs In: Why the Opposition Coalition is Dead on Arrival

Let me tell you something that’s making waves in Nigerian politics right now. Yusuf Ata, the Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, has dropped a bombshell. He’s saying that the coalition put together by Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai won’t stand a chance against President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election. In a statement he made in Kano, Ata didn’t mince words, calling the coalition “dead on arrival.”

Tinubu’s Record: Building Confidence in Leadership

Ata went on to highlight what he sees as Tinubu’s achievements since taking office in 2023. He believes that Tinubu has successfully implemented economic and political reforms, which have significantly boosted public confidence in the administration. This, according to Ata, is the reason why the coalition simply won’t gain traction. He also took a jab at his political rivals, labeling Atiku as a “serial contester,” El-Rufai as a “desperate power seeker,” and Obi as someone who stirs up ethnic and religious tensions.

Stability Under Tinubu: A New Era in Governance

Ata further argued that Tinubu’s leadership has brought stability to the nation, a stark contrast to what he perceives as the chaotic governance styles of his opponents. He stated that Nigeria has moved beyond the days of "trial-and-error governance," where politicians without clear ideologies relied solely on sentiments to win votes. To back up his claims, Ata cited Tinubu’s intervention in the political crisis in Rivers State as a prime example of effective governance.

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He concluded by dismissing the opposition coalition as lacking both credibility and public support, labeling its members as mere "political jobbers" who are scrambling for relevance.

Akin Oshuntokun Sounds the Alarm: Challenges in Opposition Unity

Meanwhile, Akin Oshuntokun, the former Director-General of the Labour Party Presidential Campaign Council, is ringing the warning bells about the difficulties of forming a strong opposition coalition against President Tinubu ahead of the 2027 election. In a conversation on Arise Television, Oshuntokun highlighted the challenges posed by the presidential ambitions of key opposition figures, especially Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar.

Divided Opposition: The 2023 Scenario Repeated?

Oshuntokun pointed out that both Obi and Atiku, who contested in the 2023 election, are likely to run again in 2027. This creates a significant obstacle in uniting opposition forces. He explained that Obi enjoys massive support from the youth and the Obidient movement, while Atiku commands the backing of the Northern political establishment. Unless one of them steps aside or shifts their focus, the opposition risks repeating the divided scenario of 2023.

A Tough Call for Obi: Vice-Presidential Run or Broader Movement?

Oshuntokun suggested that Obi might need to rethink his presidential ambition and instead focus on building a broader political movement. He acknowledged the pressure on Obi to run as a vice-presidential candidate alongside a Northern politician. However, he admitted that this idea faces strong opposition from the Obidient Movement, who view Obi as their chosen leader. Oshuntokun warned, “Obi is in a tough spot. He’ll face immense pressure to reconsider his role in the coalition, but the movement that backs him won’t take kindly to this.”

Oshuntokun also acknowledged calls for a new candidate to lead the coalition but highlighted the immense challenges in uniting the opposition forces. He said, “If I were him, I’d prioritize building a strong political movement rather than focusing solely on a presidential bid.” He also noted that if Obi chooses to run independently again, he might struggle to replicate the momentum he had in the 2023 election.

Key to Success: Northern Discontent and Setting Aside Ambitions

Oshuntokun emphasized that Northern discontent is crucial for any viable opposition coalition to succeed. He argued, “If there’s any hope of unseating the APC, the core opposition must come from the North. Discontent in that region would significantly weaken Tinubu’s chances.” He warned that opposition figures would need to demonstrate a willingness to set aside personal ambitions for the common goal of removing the ruling party from power. It’s going to take a lot of compromise and collaboration to make this happen.