Why Nigerians Are Still Feeling The Pinch Despite Falling Inflation Rates

February's Drop in Inflation Sparks Debate on Economic Recovery

Listen, here's the thing: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced a dip in inflation rates in February 2025 to 23.18 percent and 23.51 percent, respectively. Government officials and their supporters were quick to applaud this development, seeing it as a clear sign of economic recovery. But let me tell you something—on the streets, it's a different story altogether. Food prices are still sky-high, transportation costs keep climbing, and families are struggling just to afford basic necessities.

Remember when President Bola Tinubu, in his Ramadan message to Muslims, said his administration's policies were starting to bear fruit? He noted that the foreign exchange rate was stabilizing and that food prices were trending downward. But here's the reality check: while prices for some food items have indeed dropped compared to December 2024 and January 2025, they're nowhere near as low or affordable as they were when President Tinubu first took office.

Here's a quick snapshot of current prices versus what they were a few months ago:

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Current Price Of Basic Food Items                                                December/January Price
– A bag of Rice                       ₦70.000 – ₦75.000                                             ₦82.000 – ₦85.000
– A bag of Beans                    ₦80.000 – ₦85.000                                            ₦102.000
– A Tuber of Yam                  ₦3,000                                                                   ₦4,000 – ₦5,000
– A bag Garri                         ₦38.000 – ₦40.000                                             ₦48.000
– 25 liter of palm oil            ₦48.000                                                                  ₦60.000
– 25 liter groundnut oil      ₦60.000                                                                  ₦90.000 -100.000

While there's been a slight decrease in some items, the truth is that many commodities remain prohibitively expensive. This is why so many Nigerians find it hard to trust the official inflation numbers—they simply don't see tangible relief in their daily lives.

So Why Are Food Prices Still Through the Roof?

I had the chance to sit down with Global Affairs Analyst Gbenga Onifade for an exclusive interview with Naija News. He broke down the factors behind why food prices haven't dropped as much as we'd expect, even with the decline in inflation.

Here's what he had to say: "Look, it's important to understand that this drop in inflation is significant—it went from around 40% down to 24%. That shows there's definitely improvement in the economy's condition. But here's the deal: the rate is still relatively high. And when you look at the markets, they're always forward-looking. Traders and investors don't just react instantly to changes; they're thinking about the future. If prices drop slightly or significantly, a trader isn't going to slash their prices right away. They're in business to make money, after all."

"So what happens? Retailers or traders won't fully pass on the benefits of the drop to customers. They'll give some credit back by lowering prices a little, but they won't hand over the full reduction. That's why prices still feel so high. Plus, the market is forward-looking, meaning traders are holding back because they don't know what's coming next. Insecurity, terrorism, and other disruptions can always crop up and disrupt supply chains. There's no trust in the system, and that's why prices remain stubbornly high."

What Can the Government Do to Tackle the Root Causes of Inflation?

Onifade also weighed in on how the government can address the root causes of inflation in Nigeria. Here's what he shared: "The government is doing some good work, sure, but can they do more? Absolutely. Recently, Finance Minister Wale Edun introduced some palliative measures to help the people. I'm not sure how many folks actually received those benefits, but let's be real—it's only a short-term fix. You spend that money, and then what? To truly tackle inflation, there needs to be major policy reform and infrastructure development. Nigeria's fundamentals are weak, and while palliatives are nice, they won't solve the deeper issues."

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"The government needs to focus on the root causes by reforming policies and making strategic investments in agriculture. Promoting modern farming techniques and improving access to loans for farmers through the financial system could make a real difference. Without addressing these core problems, we'll keep spinning our wheels."

While the NBS's inflation report might suggest things are improving, the average Nigerian hasn't felt any real change yet. Until policies directly tackle the root causes of inflation and ease the cost-of-living pressures, the gap between government figures and the lived reality on the streets will only grow wider.

For now, many Nigerians can only hope that, beyond the numbers, genuine economic relief will eventually make its way into their homes and wallets.