Unpacking The Discrepancies In Nigeria's 2024 Governorship Elections: A Deep Dive

Breaking Down the Numbers: What KDI's Report Reveals About Edo and Ondo Elections

Alright, folks, let’s get straight to the point. A new report from the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) has dropped some serious insights into the 2024 governorship elections in Edo and Ondo states. Now, this isn’t just your average election analysis. The findings are raising eyebrows and sparking conversations about the transparency of Nigeria’s electoral process.

This report, which has been aptly titled "Ballot Integrity Report for the 2024 Edo and Ondo State Governorship Elections," shines a spotlight on the discrepancies between the figures recorded on INEC’s Election Result Viewing (IReV) portal and the official results declared by INEC at the state collation centers. It’s like comparing two different stories about the same event, and the differences are hard to ignore.

Numbers Don’t Lie: The Discrepancies in Vote Counts

Let’s break it down for you. The report uncovers some startling figures. For instance, the All Progressives Congress (APC) reportedly gained an extra 40,871 votes when comparing the IReV data to the official INEC results. On the flip side, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) saw a decrease of 10,680 votes in the official tally compared to the IReV data. That’s a significant difference, and it doesn’t stop there.

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When you zoom in on the Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Edo State, the discrepancies become even more apparent. In Akoko Edo LGA, for example, the APC received 9,912 more votes in the official results than what was recorded on the IReV platform. In Oredo LGA, the APC's vote count was bumped up by 13,393 in the official tally. Meanwhile, the PDP faced a shortfall in votes, with Ikpoba/Okha showing a difference of 4,898 votes and Oredo having 4,223 fewer votes in the official results compared to the IReV data.

Impact on the Election Outcome: A Closer Look

Now, here’s the kicker. While these discrepancies didn’t change the overall winner of the election, they did significantly affect the margin of victory. According to the official results, APC candidate Monday Okpebholo won with 291,667 votes, while PDP candidate Asue Ighodalo garnered 247,274 votes. That’s a margin of 44,393 votes, right? But hold on—when you look at the IReV data, the margin shrinks dramatically to just 8,064 votes. That’s a massive difference!

And there’s more. The report also points out that 22 polling units in Edo State uploaded Form EC40, indicating that elections were either canceled or didn’t take place at all. This affected 13,942 registered voters, with 11,917 Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) collected. Given that the number of canceled votes exceeded the margin of lead based on the IReV data, the report suggests that the election might have met the conditions for a supplementary election under electoral guidelines.

More Than Just Numbers: The Broader Implications

But the discrepancies don’t end with vote counts. The report also highlights mismatches in the number of registered voters recorded in Form EC8A at specific polling units in both Edo and Ondo states. In Edo, areas like the Enwan/Atte/Ikpeshi/Egbibele Registration Area (RA) in Akoko-Edo LGA and the Ogida/Use RA in Egor LGA showed inconsistencies. In Ondo, polling units in Oke Aro/Uro I RA in Akure South LGA and Iluabo/Eleyewo/Bolorunduro RA in Akure North LGA also experienced mismatches.

What’s more, 141 polling units in Edo and 87 polling units in Ondo had discrepancies in registration numbers. At the state collation centers, Edo State showed 18,340 fewer registered voters than the pre-election figures, while Ondo experienced similar mismatches. And let’s not forget the missing ballots. In Edo State, 28,083 ballots were unaccounted for, and in Ondo, 12,931 ballots disappeared. These missing ballots only add to the doubts about the credibility of the election results.

A Call to Action: What Needs to Happen Next

Bukola Idowu, the Executive Director of KDI, addressed journalists after the report’s presentation, urging INEC to take immediate action to address these discrepancies. He emphasized the importance of transparency, especially in the upcoming governorship elections in Anambra, Ekiti, and Osun, leading up to the 2027 general elections. While acknowledging the improvements made by INEC in uploading results to the IReV platform, Idowu stressed that these discrepancies must be resolved to restore public confidence in the electoral process.

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In a separate interview, Professor Adele Jinadu, a political science expert, shared his thoughts. He acknowledged that some inconsistencies are bound to happen in complex electoral processes, but the critical question is whether these discrepancies are intentional or incidental. He urged INEC to review any contested results and encouraged citizens to actively monitor elections at the polling unit level to ensure the integrity of the process.

Final Thoughts: Where Do We Go From Here?

As we reflect on the findings of the KDI report, one thing is clear: the electoral process in Nigeria still has a long way to go. While progress has been made, these discrepancies highlight the need for continued vigilance and reform. It’s up to all of us—INEC, political parties, and citizens alike—to work together to ensure that every vote counts and that our elections reflect the true will of the people.